Big Numbers today

[ajohn]

Not much except that the situation is worse in England (London?).
However, while the overall Death/Case for the UK may be similar to that which I posted for the UK in #199 (I have not done the calculation) you have not posted Death/Population - which may avoid the problem of "unreported" cases.

No I've calculated deaths related to hospital entries and then added percentage of population that have gone into hospital to see how much that varies. Point is for some reason England's deaths related to hospital entries are far higher. It may be an ethnic aspect but that doesn't apply to ~80% of the population. The ethnic aspect is much lower in other areas of the country.

I only use the PHE figures as they are the official ones.

All morbid curiosity. I have noticed that hospital entries are statistically level day by day. In other words for something that is random indications of being basically level as is the number of people in hospital. This should be all down to the lock down. There are indications that people are only allowed into hospital when they show clear signs of needing oxygen so there may also be deaths where things got worse at a faster rate than usual so they don't make it. 2 have been reported.

Death counts as they have mentioned are even more random so rolling averages make sense. Daily figures in real terms will vary up and down.

There is also a daily unconfirmed count. On the 11th April it was 2,647 people across all regions. It's been climbing all of the time. People not being matched to a post code is mentioned so not included in the regional figures but should be in the total country figures.

They did have an NHS worker on TV that tested negative twice but confirmed via a cat scan. If that happens now and again it must make control even more difficult all round.

 

[IT Minion]

Admissions are capped, there's only so many beds. If there are more serious cases one day then less serious cases that would have been borderline the day before won't be admitted. And that will drive up the mortality rate. It's exactly what is expected when the number of cases exceed NHS capacity.

 

[Notch7]

Trump will come up with a vaccine pretty quick, it will be beautiful and save the world.

Best buddy Boris will ensure we get the vaccine early, and other European countries will have to denounce the EU and sign up for chlorinated chicken before being allowed any.

I presume that is a bit of satire.

If Trump comes up with a vaccine I' m sure it will be Tremendous (ly) expensive

 

[motorbiking]

Both GSK and AstraZeneca are trialing existing drugs which are thought to help suppress the immune over reaction, which causes Covid-19 related lung disease.

While there may well be a tremendous vaccine, I think in the short term there will be existing drugs that can be used to reduce the destruction of those with advanced symptoms.

 

[ajohn]

Admissions are capped, there's only so many beds. If there are more serious cases one day then less serious cases that would have been borderline the day before won't be admitted. And that will drive up the mortality rate. It's exactly what is expected when the number of cases exceed NHS capacity.

They claim daily that capacity hasn't been reached and the people have reached hospital - but take your point. It does seem to be pretty clear that just a cough and temperature wont get some one intro hospital. That just means self isolate. There has been various mutterings.

Modern ventilators.
Earlier ones that sound like they can't be so precisely set or something like that.
Fresh from China being more like the ones for temporary use in ambulances and not for long term use. These seem to be a mod of a uk made one so pass.
Kidney machine shortages ????? but not much mention. Needed for hydration probably on ventilators.

The new positive pressure breathing device. They have said that they are being made and that could be up to 1000 a day by now - somewhere in the world, not clear on that. Having seen various things not sure if they are totally approved or widely about. Largely from finding the minutes from one of the advisory groups meetings. Concern seemed to be super spreading virus all over the place. Given how hard ventilators hit people I know which aid I would rather go on to see if it works if at all possible.

 

[IT Minion]

They claim daily that capacity hasn't been reached and the people have reached hospital - but take your point. It does seem to be pretty clear that just a cough and temperature wont get some one intro hospital. That just means self isolate. There has been various mutterings.

More than that, milder cases of Pneumonia aren't always admitted.

 

[Brigadier]

Both GSK and AstraZeneca are trialing existing drugs which are thought to help suppress the immune over reaction, which causes Covid-19 related lung disease.

While there may well be a tremendous vaccine, I think in the short term there will be existing drugs that can be used to reduce the destruction of those with advanced symptoms.

Exactly.
How many billions of dollars, and decades of research, have been expended on an HIV vaccine that doesn't yet exist?

There is no guarantee that the search for a CV will be any more fruitful.

 

[IT Minion]

Exactly.
How many billions of dollars, and decades of research, have been expended on an HIV vaccine that doesn't yet exist?

There is no guarantee that the search for a CV will be any more fruitful.

The two aren't quite the same. HIV does have a range of good, and expensive, drugs to treat it. This reduces the need and drive for a vaccine. It's also a very difficult virus to treat and to run studies on.

Covid-19 is a variant of previously seen Corona viruses, which already have vaccines available. They won't work on the new version, but it strongly implies that a vaccine is possible. Lets pretend you have learnt how to speak French. You can't automatically speak Spanish but there's good odds that if you put the effort in you could learn it too. HIV is more like Navajo in this, rather poor, analogy.

 

[Brigadier]

The two aren't quite the same. HIV does have a range of good, and expensive, drugs to treat it. This reduces the need and drive for a vaccine. It's also a very difficult virus to treat and to run studies on.

Covid-19 is a variant of previously seen Corona viruses, which already have vaccines available. They won't work on the new version, but it strongly implies that a vaccine is possible. Lets pretend you have learnt how to speak French. You can't automatically speak Spanish but there's good odds that if you put the effort in you could learn it too. HIV is more like Navajo in this, rather poor, analogy.

Time will tell.

 

[Brigadier]

The two aren't quite the same. HIV does have a range of good, and expensive, drugs to treat it. This reduces the need and drive for a vaccine. It's also a very difficult virus to treat and to run studies on.

Some points.
HIV has only had "good" drugs to treat it for around the last ten years, so for the previous twenty, little to dissuade the search for a vaccine.
And, as you have said, they're expensive. Which also doesn't dissuade others from searching for a vaccine. Far from it, in fact.

Also, you've somewhat contradicted yourself, in that you say that there a range of good drugs to treat it, and that it is difficult to treat.

 

[ajohn]

Both GSK and AstraZeneca are trialing existing drugs which are thought to help suppress the immune over reaction, which causes Covid-19 related lung disease.

While there may well be a tremendous vaccine, I think in the short term there will be existing drugs that can be used to reduce the destruction of those with advanced symptoms.

Some one mentioned that no vaccine has been developed for similar viruses. Might be didn't bother or couldn't. They take a long time to come out because it's difficult to find out if they cause long term harm. Figures like 5 years have been mentioned.

I did look to see what the malaria drug does. Reduces high temperatures and inflammation with risk of kidney and liver damage. According to the Dr Nurse on youtube not the thing to do as interfering with the bodies natural defence mechanisms. He was sort of saying maybe if some point over 40C. I've always had feeling that aspirin increase the duration of some forms of a cold. I've never been keen on paracetamol due to some forms of headache I used to have at times. Might be due to dehydration as asprin can help with that. No I don't drink a lot but do know that asprin plus water can prevent hang overs. I suppose many have drunk too much sometimes - that includes me on a few occasions

Antivirals are tricky from the look of things. Seems they do something to RNA viruses fine but in the human body

There are two main functions of RNA. It assists DNA by serving as a messenger to relay the proper genetic information to countless numbers of ribosomes in your body. The other main function of RNA is to select the correct amino acid needed by each ribosome to build new proteins for your body.

Latest info seems to be that people who had their TB jab are more likely to survive. An unreviewed statistical analysis. Might be a particular type of TB jab - pass

 

[JohnD]

Some one mentioned that no vaccine has been developed for similar viruses. Might be didn't bother or couldn't.

Commercial companies are not keen on developing vaccines. The problem is that most of the people who need them most are in poor countries, and can't afford to pay much (if anything). And if the years of work developing one don't pay off, or somebody else produces a better or faster one, it will be wasted. So it's not a profitable business. Treatments against Ebola were only developed when the prosperous West thought they were at risk.

The world price of polio vaccine is now about $1.90 per dose. TB $2 - $3.

That's why state-sponsored, or, preferably, international effort makes more sense. Older 'notters will remember mass treatments against polio, TB, and smallpox. It makes sense to protect the world, including the poor countries, because when infection is rife in one place, it will easily spread to others. It doesn't make sense to people who are wedded to the idea that healthcare should ony be available to those who pay.

Being in a country that protects, surrounded by others that don't, is like standing in the no-pi$$ing end of a swimming pool.

The WHO used to do a lot of good work in this field.

Amusingly, people like Trump hate the WHO and grumble about paying the dues they agreed.

Guess which country owes the most in overdue payments?

 

[motorbiking]

Keep the politics out - Its much easier to analyse if existing drugs can work rather than inventing new ones. The reason is very simple. We already have a good understanding of the side effects and toxicology of existing drugs, so can bring them to availability much quicker. New drugs take years to develop and test, sometimes there can be huge side effects that don't show up until 4 or 5 years later.

 

[ajohn]

There is a sharp increase in deaths via national statistics. Best watch BBC news for an explanation as there are complications. I assume they will go through it again on the 6pm one or maybe during the rather long one covering the daily brief. The ONS site doesn't provide it graphically anywhere I can find. It needs to be compared with the normals gathered over years and years.

 

[Charlie George]

Guess which country owes the most in overdue payments?

Have China paid yet John? Boris has paid our share,but no praise from you.