Big Numbers today

[JohnD]

There has been several years when flu has caused a spike - you can see the average spike from the average bar.

UK death rate is currently 50% above normal.

Or 85%, see text below.

https://www.ft.com/content/99220450-b0f2-4779-a768-90d199d1348c

"Even the ONS figure of 16,387 deaths for the week ending April 3 will underestimate the total that occurred in the seven-day period. This is because the ONS has subsequently received reports of another 2,112 deaths mentioning coronavirus that occurred before that date, and which were registered later. The ONS figures confirm that the Covid-19 outbreak is significantly worse than any flu epidemic Britain has suffered in recent years. Comparable estimates started 15 years ago. Nick Stripe, head of life events at the ONS, said: “The 16,387 deaths that were registered in England and Wales during the week ending 3 April is the highest weekly total since we started compiling weekly deaths data in 2005.”

 

[Charlie George]

UK death rate is currently 50% above normal.

Or 85%, see text below.

View attachment 189063



https://www.ft.com/content/99220450-b0f2-4779-a768-90d199d1348c

"Even the ONS figure of 16,387 deaths for the week ending April 3 will underestimate the total that occurred in the seven-day period. This is because the ONS has subsequently received reports of another 2,112 deaths mentioning coronavirus that occurred before that date, and which were registered later. The ONS figures confirm that the Covid-19 outbreak is significantly worse than any flu epidemic Britain has suffered in recent years. Comparable estimates started 15 years ago. Nick Stripe, head of life events at the ONS, said: “The 16,387 deaths that were registered in England and Wales during the week ending 3 April is the highest weekly total since we started compiling weekly deaths data in 2005.”

Or you could say the death rate this year is 2% higher than average, which is true

From ONS
Looking at the year-to-date (using the most up-to-date data we have available to get the most accurate estimates), the number of deaths is currently higher than the five-year average. The current number of deaths is 166,436, which is 2,240 more than the five-year average. Of the deaths registered by 3 April 2020, 4,122 mentioned the coronavirus (COVID-19) on the death certificate; this is 2.5% of all deaths.

 

[IT Minion]

Or you could say the death rate this year is 2% higher than average, which is true

From ONS
Looking at the year-to-date (using the most up-to-date data we have available to get the most accurate estimates), the number of deaths is currently higher than the five-year average. The current number of deaths is 166,436, which is 2,240 more than the five-year average. Of the deaths registered by 3 April 2020, 4,122 mentioned the coronavirus (COVID-19) on the death certificate; this is 2.5% of all deaths.

Or 0.2 increase spread over the last decade or so. It's trivial numbers, not even a rounding error when you think of it like that.

How is comparing a couple of weeks to a full year in any way enlightening? I'm not saying you're wrong, but I'm not sure why you're saying it.

 

[JohnD]

Of the deaths registered by 3 April 2020, 4,122 mentioned the coronavirus (COVID-19) on the death certificate; this is 2.5% of all deaths.

We know that all the official numbers understate the true figures, because we aren't able to test and diagnose enough.

Of course this includes the death certificates.

We don't know by how much they understate the truth.

The rate of deaths in the country shows the excess deaths.

Some of the deaths will be people with other conditions who can't get treatment because the health system is already crammed full.

In 1952, the Great Smog of London killed about 12,000 people in five days. The scale of the problem became apparent when undertakers ran out of coffins.

Today, crematoria have run out of capacity.

This is not a trivial problem.

 

[Charlie George]

We know that all the official numbers understate the true figures, because we aren't able to test and diagnose enough.

Of course this includes the death certificates.

We don't know by how much they understate the truth.

No John the figures i gave are from ALL deaths which show this year has increased by less than 2%, but don't sound as sensationalist as yours.
But that Woudn't suit your agenda.
And im not calling it trivial, all lives matter.

 

[fillyboy]

Today, crematoria have run out of capacity.

Got a link to that?

 

[Doug99]

I fear that this time next year we will be arguing over why we did what we did, when the final death rates may not have warranted the costs both socially and economically.
But having said that, whenever has an insurance policy/strategy been considered cost effective?

 

[JohnD]

Got a link to that? no linky no sh1tty.

No but I have recently experienced it.

 

[fillyboy]

Got a link to that? no linky no sh1tty.

No but

Ah, I thought so. There may be slight delays but we're nowhere near the situation we were in during the winter of discontent in the seventies due to strikes. It may well get to that stage, but it hasn't yet. Don't over egg it John, I'm watching you.

 

[securespark]

Threatening.

Free speech?

As much as you are allowed to say what you like, so can anyone else, surely?

Or are you saying that others (including yourself) can continue to say what they want, but he cannot?

 

[motorbiking]

Are you trotting out the "wasteful use" smear?

No. I’m genuinely wondering if items can be safely recycled to address supply issues.

healthcare is wasteful by nature as items often can’t be reused.

 

[IT Minion]

No. I’m genuinely wondering if items can be safely recycled to address supply issues.

healthcare is wasteful by nature as items often can’t be reused.

Whilst it's true there's a lot of medical equipment that is single use (more helpful than introducing 'waste' imo). It's also a topic which gets a lot of attention as reusable kit saves them a fortune. It's also researched to death.

My guess is that if it were practical and safe to reuse them then it's be happening.

 

[motorbiking]

You’d be amazed.

 

[IT Minion]

You’d be amazed.

Bluntly yes, I would be amazed if the currently single use PPE can be reused more than current guidelines state safely.

 

[noseall]

You’d be amazed.

I'm ready....