Big Numbers today

[SirGalahad]

We'll some countries have counted testing by simply doing a non contact temperature test. That doesn't really so anything, other than you are hotter than normal.

But is that what they have used for official figures?

 

[ReganAndCarter]

That doesn't really so anything, other than you are hotter than normal.

Charlize Theron has Coronavirus. Poor girl!

 

[EddieM]

But is that what they have used for official figures?

Don't know, but it doesn't really matter the only comparisons you can make is with your own data collected over time, and then only as long as the method in which you collect it remains constant.

 

[EddieM]

I thought the point of testing was to produce either a positive or negative (covid19)result? Are you saying that countries are putting out figures that account for how many tests they have carried out?

Not necessarily.... anyway WRT to positive / negative test, are all countries using the same "test"? same reagents? same accuracy? Don't know?

 

[durhamplumber]

think we are getting a death toll lag in the U.K. numbers. Today more people died than were

Common sense really.Lag between dieing,cause of death established,figures collated,reported once every 24 hours..Everyone wants ""Instant""

 

[motorbiking]

Yes - these aren't people who died on that day. Otherwise something is going wrong with a death toll, higher than critically ill. To get a better understanding of UK numbers, you need to look at the regional differences. London was so big, it almost needed to be excluded from the numbers as it was masking a lot. For example London figures are showing signs of decline, while there is an uptick in the North. At a UK or England level its being masked.

 

[Brigadier]

According to another ITU consultant last night on R5L, survival when on ventilator is very unlikely.
Perhaps the German low death rate is them not switching the ventilators off as quickly (or whatever the process is)?

 

[motorbiking]

Normally its about 50:50, but if you are going on to a ventilator because of COVID, its likely that its due to your lungs being screwed by the Virus. A bit like trauma related heart attack.

On the German thing. Its easy to forget that the purpose of the lock down is to stop the NHS from being overwhelmed. It is not going to stop people who are unlucky enough to be highly sensitive to it from dying. There are several credible sources that say Germany's wave hasn't hit yet.

 

[fillyboy]

There are several credible sources that say Germany's wave hasn't hit yet.

Is that likely given the geographics?

 

[motorbiking]

What do you think our numbers would have been today, had we gone in to lockdown in January? My bet, is very low, but as soon as you lift it. Its sitting there waiting for you. This is a global pandemic, international travel is going to be the key spreader given different countries are adopting different approaches. There is evidence that Russia is now at the start also.

 

[Munroast]

a vaccine for everyone is years away (if ever) so we're all going to be exposed sooner or later - but I reckon the trick is to get it later rather than sooner - give the NHS a chance to get better at treating people, and in the mean time get lean and get fit. Time to get out on the push bike and clock up some miles.

 

[motorbiking]

Yep. They are already learning that gentle O2 assistance works better than chemical induced coma and artificial respiration. Who'd have thought.

Getting fit - If you've never been fit or exercised and are over 45, you do need to take it easy. Its one of the most common causes of heart attack and stroke. Clogged, sticky arteries full of bacon butties suddenly get an increase in HR and BP which causes bits of cholesterol to break off and get stuck somewhere.

Always a good idea to check your HRR in the first minute and second minute after exercise. You need to recover at least 20bpm/m otherwise you might have a problem.

 

[Brigadier]

Yep. They are already learning that gentle O2 assistance works better than chemical induced coma and artificial respiration. Who'd have thought.

Yes, all of those "prophets who look backwards" who crowed about our lack of ventilators (lack of preparedness) will have to spin it another way. Imagine the alternative:

"20 000 extra ventilators. Useless. We could have spent the money on more tests (akin to flipping coins) instead."

 

[JohnD]

Are you telling is that in your opinion, UK was well prepared?

 

[SirGalahad]

We did have a lack of preparedness. We still need these ventilators.

Those crowing we didn't need these ventilators because we can use non invasive treatment like CPAP machines fail to address then these machines are AGP machines so we need full aprons, masks visors etc because they are aerosol generating procedures. They also make infection control harder.

The initial treatment pathways was to treat Covid like ARDS as this was the best response known at the time. The decisions were driven byt the oxygen saturation levels. So using less invasive treatment may help Covid-19 patients respond better but then there is the issue of them being on low oxygen saturation for a prolonged time - ergo now you are seeing how the recovery post hospital is so slow. Hypoxia is a huge concern.