Big Numbers today

[Munroast]

I am looking at the 7 day average, Wed high numbers have pushed our curve the wrong side of the Italian line.


from my interpretation of worldometers data, averaged over last 7 days and adjusted to reflect population size.

Belgium's figures appear to be particularity bad, however their numbers cover all deaths, the rst of the countries I am using may just be reflecting hospital deaths. So may be Belguims situation is no worse than out own?

 

[motorbiking]

There was a graph published showing the actual date of death. I can't find it now, but it suggested we are well past the hump. I guess its academic, if over the coming days our numbers start to decline. I do like @Munroist's graph, because it is sensibly adjusted for population. Although countries with less land per head do seem to come off worse.

 

[durhamplumber]

What do you think our numbers would have been today, had we gone in to lockdown in January? My bet, is very low, but as soon as you lift it.

Not as simple as that..People not adhering to lockdown now...let alone in January probably with no UK deaths and v few UK cases...As one notices, people have limited tolerance for lockdown..even when many are dieing.

 

[motorbiking]

Yes - I think lockdown will come to a natural death as other countries ease restrictions and people get fed up with it.

We may well develop a blitz culture, where we are unmoved/numbed by thousands of people dropping dead on a daily basis.

I do think without the govt picking up the wage bill, we'd have had riots and protests like the US.

 

[Munroast]

Not as simple as that..People not adhering to lockdown now...let alone in January probably with no UK deaths and v few UK cases...As one notices, people have limited tolerance for lockdown..even when many are dieing.

Interesting that you say that; I have been cycling as my daily exercise, at the beginning of the lockdown I was using a road that I would not normally cycle on for the amount of traffic. First week of the lockdown it was an absolute joy, 20 miles and may be one or two vehicles. This week it has been more like 20 to 30. Still not bad but If it gets any busier I wont be cycling on it, which means I will need to drive out of town like I normally do to access quiet roads - so that will be another van on the road. I too think the lockdown is breaking.

 

[motorbiking]

Driving with your bike for exercise is allowed. But I agree, the Surrey hills (where I mostly live) are packed with cyclists. You can spot the newbies though. They all have their seat too low

 

[crystal ball]

Interesting that you say that; I have been cycling as my daily exercise, at the beginning of the lockdown I was using a road that I would not normally cycle on for the amount of traffic. First week of the lockdown it was an absolute joy, 20 miles and may be one or two vehicles. This week it has been more like 20 to 30. Still not bad but If it gets any busier I wont be cycling on it, which means I will need to drive out of town like I normally do to access quiet roads - so that will be another van on the road. I too think the lockdown is breaking.

Same here, at the start I was almost alone on the roads, lots more walkers, and cyclists of the Mrs Doubtfire variety, and cars are deffo on the increase

 

[Brigadier]

Yes, traffic volumes have significantly increased, over the last fortnight.

 

[Deleted2797112]

I've been taking the 91 yo parent out every other day for the exercise walk. We live in a city centre which is pretty hilly with very narrow pavements and it's been miserable. I end up pushing and pulling them off the pavement, into hedges, up garden paths, into shop doorways to dodge people reading their phones, kids on scooters, dogs on long leads and people just generally not making allowances. So I'm now driving 0.5 to 1 mile to parks where there are wide flat open paths. I feel awful doing it but we need the exercise for our heads as much as our legs, heart and lungs and these walks have been so stressful, neither of us is getting any benefit. So another car on the road......

 

[EFLImpudence]

In the graph -

Is Scotland also included in the UK figures.

Whether it is or is not, the two lines do not make sense.

 

[motorbiking]

Its adjusted from days of 2nd recorded death.

On a separate note there is talk of there being multiple variants with vastly different potency.

Hence its very hard to compare a countries performance.

 

[motorbiking]

seems some debate about correct number today DfH saying 616 other sources 638

 

[Munroast]

In the graph -

Is Scotland also included in the UK figures.

Whether it is or is not, the two lines do not make sense.

Yes, the UK includes Scotlands figures

How do the lines not make sense?

 

[EFLImpudence]

Yes, the UK includes Scotlands figures
How do the lines not make sense?

Simply because the Scottish numbers are nearly as high as the UK numbers.

 

[IT Minion]

Simply because the Scottish numbers are nearly as high as the UK numbers.

It's proportional, based on the population of the country.