Big Numbers today

[ajohn]

my understanding is that hardware stores and garden centres didnt have to close -they did so because they were concerned they couldnt comply with social distancing and minimise risk to staff sufficiently.

It seems to have given them time to sort out social distancing and make it safe for their workforce. Sky had a go at a minister on the brief today saying allowing it for unnecessary work was sending out mixed message. Crowds rushing to B&Q etc. Her ministership replied - no different to supermarkets and working wll. Actually going how it's being done round here I think many would find working there a better option than the till and stacking at supermarkets.

Personally I would be happier if all wore masks when people can be closer to each other, Washable cotton - that seems to be what the Asians wear. What's not a good idea is ones made from man made materials. Even if it only cuts transmission by a couple of % it's still significant. No answer from SAGE so far. I'd guess it's mostly a supply problem. More than one country has introduced them now. We need multi millions quickly and at none rip off prices.

 

[ajohn]

A month or so ago, we were looking at Italy , China and Iran and were sad for them.
Apart from Italy, we have overtaken the other two!

It looks like we are going to exceed all euro countries. Their money must be cleaner than ours. In more ways than one.

They have been pretty clear that social distancing is here to stay. I'd guess they may be ideally aiming for a daily rate that means they can cope with hospitalisation easily. Equipment levels may come into that. CV19 doesn't just need a ventilator in fact use of one often needs more gear - dialysis has been mentioned a few times - problematic. ICU usually have ones that can run 24/7. There is also kit about that can oxygenates blood. They can't do anything really until they know what lock down reduces the rate to.

So they will try and arrange for people to work and be distanced. Probably tough in schools and universities. The average classroom size in schools is 27 pupils.

The recent higher death rates are probably long term hospital stays from around the peak entry rate. The peak was only 21 days ago and didn't reduce that much for a week.

They had an oncologist today that wants to get back to working at his usual rate. Chemo upsets people immune system - what to do while the virus is around?

Our own epidemic started from very very few people. Germany locked down very quickly and used testing - their death rate is increasing. Some countries have run it down to under 100 a day as this page shows. The Austrians are protesting at <10 a day. More than enough to get it to boost. China is at that level as well. No recent news but it was people returning that had been quarantined for 14days.

https://www.bbc.com/news/amp/world-51235105

The page needs widening in my case to avoid scrolling across

So what will our lot settle on? It's a lot more than tricky how ever it's looked at. They have also mentioned that they wont really know complete effects until it's all over. That makes use of E&A usage data difficult as well. I see that as more of a concern about people not going when they really should.

 

[transam]

deaths per million of population the USA is 14th on the list for deaths

belgium would be near the top for europe

 

[noseall]

The page needs widening in my case to avoid scrolling across

Are you on a phone/tablet or a P.C.?

 

[transam]

450 die per day from cancer

generally 30000 people per month are diagnosed with cancer

that is now dropped to 7 or 8000 per month since this chinese caper

which means that death rates for cancer are likely to go up as the diagnosis and then treatment may be to late

 

[noseall]

deaths per million of population the USA is 14th on the list for deaths

Thus far. They are behind in terms of time-line as we were behind Italy.

 

[ajohn]

Are you on a phone/tablet or a P.C.?

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You'll need to enlarge it so see full sized

 

[IT Minion]

.View attachment 190154

You'll need to enlarge it so see full sized

Linux using hippy.

 

[JohnD]

It looks like we are going to exceed all euro countries

There is a widely held view that this is because our Great Leader wasted eleven days , allowing the infection to spread more widely instead of promptly moving to social distancing and beginning go put our precautions into action.

Remember the Cheltenham Festival?

You'll remember that he proudly bragged of visiting a Coronavirus ward and shaking hands with everybody.

Experts despaired at his folly.

 

[JohnD]

3 February 2020, Greenwich, London

 

[Brigadier]

There is a widely held view that this is because our Great Leader wasted eleven days , allowing the infection to spread more widely instead of promptly moving to social distancing and beginning go put our precautions into action.

Remember the Cheltenham Festival?

You'll remember that he proudly bragged of visiting a Coronavirus ward and shaking hands with everybody.

Experts despaired at his folly.

As has already been posted on another thread, the lockdown is becoming less well observed, day on day.
For some, there are only a certain number of days that they'll tolerate.

Start a lockdown earlier, people will stop observing it earlier. It's a balancing act.

Two weeks ago, bugger all driving up and down the a road outside. Now, almost back to "normal '.

At this trajectory, I would expect some big numbers in the next few weeks.

 

[JohnD]

As has already been posted on another thread, the lockdown is becoming less well observed, day on day.
For some, there are only a certain number of days that they'll tolerate.

As far as I know, there are no mass events at the moment with hundreds of thousands of people jostling together. Overall attendance at the Cheltenham Festival in 2020 came to 251,684

There are no pub quizzes running. No theatres open.

In the past couple of months, the nation has started producing, and in some cases importing, protective clothing and other equipment. The time to get that started and ramping up was greater than it took the disease to infect more than 148,000 people and kill 20,000 - 40,000. We are currently diagnosing about 5,000 new cases a day. The number undiagnosed is uknown but doubtless much higher.

Note: Confirmed cases only include those testing positive for the virus, not all will have been tested. Deaths in England only include those in hospitals, those outside England may include a small number that occured in the community.

If we started the one earlier, and delayed the other till later, we would have been in a less bad poition.

 

[Brigadier]

As far as I know, there are no mass events at the moment with hundreds of thousands of people jostling together.

In the past couple of months, the nation has started producing, and in some cases importing, protective clothing and other equipment. The time to get that started and ramping up was greater than it took the disease to infect more than 148,000 people and kill 20,000 - 40,000.

If we started the one earlier, and delayed the other till later, we would have been in a less bad poition.

You dont need one showpiece mass event, when you have tens of thousands of smaller, unofficial gatherings across the country.
My first - born is currently working in Birmingham (rendering), and says that social distancing is non - existent in the area around the site.
People of all ages are just carrying on as normal.

 

[JohnD]

I don't know the true numbers in Birmingham.

where I am, the streets and public spaces are almost deserted. Most shops are closed. All pubs and restaurants are closed. Nobody is having a barbecue or a social gathering. There have been no sporting events. Several ambulances and hearses pass my house every day. Local undertakers and crematoria cannot cope with the workload.

If the story you've heard is accurate, perhaps we will see Birmingham deaths increase.

 

[JohnD]

What colour is Birmingham?