Wind the clock back - Zelensky was the guy at the head of the new rebels, at the top of an extremely corrupt regime, in a country many woudn't find on the map.
Neither side paid much attention to the Minsk accord. Zelensky used (intenationally illegal) cluster bombs in the pro Russian areas. He wasn't the hero, let's not pretend we all cared about Ukraine back then. Yes a swathe of Ukraine voted East in the elections - more than Putin controls right now.
We all backed Z, because Putin is bigger n badder, and blatantly in the wrong. I don't remember Putin demanding talks with Z, after he'd taken Crimea. Pity - that was the point lives could have been saved. But Russia prefers the steamroller approach, and he stupefyingly underestimated the resistance.
In this forum several of us were saying look, Ukraine's going to lose this. Even with billions of support from the west. As right as it felt, sending arms over, increased the toll of death and destruction. We were all amazed by how successful Ukraine was, not amazed at how crap the Russians were. Yes the Russians got their tanks out of museums for cheap anti-tank weapons to blow up. Go Ukraine!
But there was always the inevitability - Putin's obsession with his legacy, his control over his population, his arsenal, the depths to which he would sink for support - were always going to win through.
Trump repects power, and has concerns about his own legacy, and doesn't give a sh1t about the pawns. He's also I suspect naive about Putin, but does he need to care?
Trump has said since early in Act 1 that Europe should be paying a lot more for its own defence, and sorting out its power resources, and he was right.
Euro fiscal rules get in the way of EU countries' defence spending. We, Europe, dragged our feet. The UK spent £3-400Bn on covid, so half a dozen £Bn on defence , which would have taken us to around 4% GDP, could have been possible.
USA doesn't want to pay any more - they don't have spare money let's be honest. Fatty orange and his skippy sidekick are right.
What else should we have expected?
I expect Putinistas will move further west. Moldova, Georgia, Balkans, who knows? He has fingers poking money into Euro countries.
Nato may go the way of the League of Nations. Trump may well withdraw from it. He doesn't like it, it doesn't help the US.
Macron tries to raise the European brand as usual, which neither Putin or Trump will respect. Maybe he'll get somewhere with a Euro Force, but I can't see it.
Peacekeepers? Doing what? If they annoy Putin he'll pop off some missiles and say shoo.
The EU isn't a military entity. Individual countries can opt to support Ukraine. I don't see that getting far either.
Rubio used to like Nato, but he won't get in Trump's way. Maybe he will do some persuading, such that USA gets something from Europe in return for involvement. But I think Trump is capable of bullying economically, anyway. Greenland?? Maybe Trump will change tack. Maybe he'll follow his shock-and-pull-back routine.
Another way forward? Maybe Europe pays up right now for US arms to send to Ukraine while it builds up its own forces. ??
But until what point? The point where Ukraine runs out of fighters or Europe falls apart with most countries not wanting to go to war with Putin.
Use thousands and thousands of drones?? They don't wear boots.
