Budget

[carmanmemoranda]

OK you both seem to be struggling.

Claimed black hole 20bn, tax rises 40bn.

No struggle here.

You expected her just to fill the hole and do nothing else ?

Tory option was to make the hole worse.

 

[denso13]

Claimed black hole 20bn, tax rises 40bn.

Yes, extra spending. This is basic stuff...

 

[Mottie]

Claimed black hole 20bn, tax rises 40bn.

So it looks to me like if there were no black hole, they had planned and would have made a 20bn one anyway. No different to the Tories then.

 

[motorbiking]

Basic stuff, is having a manifesto that says we don't need to increase taxes and then breaking that commitment once we are in power. Funny how the IFS were on her months ago.

Labour Party manifesto: an initial response | Institute for Fiscal Studies

An assessment of the tax rises and spending changes proposed in the 2024 Labour Party general election manifesto

ifs.org.uk

 

[carmanmemoranda]

So it looks to me like if there were no black hole, they had planned and would have made a 20bn one anyway. No different to the Tories then.

Depends whether it's a hole to hide things. Or a hole to put foundations in .

 

[carmanmemoranda]

Basic stuff, is having a manifesto that says we don't need to increase taxes and then breaking that commitment once we are in power. Funny how the IFS were on her months ago.

Labour Party manifesto: an initial response | Institute for Fiscal Studies

An assessment of the tax rises and spending changes proposed in the 2024 Labour Party general election manifesto

ifs.org.uk

You've seen the reports about the Tories ?

OBR, was it ?

 

[motorbiking]

Hiding things is saying we don't plan to increase taxes and then increasing taxes.

 

[denso13]

Hiding things is saying we don't plan to increase taxes

But your link is headed, "An assessment of the tax rises and spending changes proposed in the 2024 Labour Party general election manifesto".

Hiding things is saying we don't plan to increase taxes

Nonsense.

 

[carmanmemoranda]

Hiding things is saying we don't plan to increase taxes and then increasing taxes.

A better argument would be showing why the Tories would have been better, or less bad.

Not complaining about picking up the damage they left

 

[ajohn]

Basic stuff, is having a manifesto that says we don't need to increase taxes and then breaking that commitment once we are in power. Funny how the IFS were on her months ago.

Labour Party manifesto: an initial response | Institute for Fiscal Studies

An assessment of the tax rises and spending changes proposed in the 2024 Labour Party general election manifesto

ifs.org.uk

Really. The IFS solution to the UK problems was to borrow our way out of them. Excede100% GDP. Promptly dropped when black hole aspects started to be mentioned and investigated.

Views on the reasons for the black hole that get a mention. Pay rises are a favourite. A simple sum can be used that neglects pay rises that had been offered.

It gets worse / harder to understand. So we have some areas set for specific amount of cash each year. Other factors are put across in terms of the planning period which is 5 years. The WFP is a good example of why this needs considering. £1,5b = £7,5b over this period. An entirely different view of the effect of cutting it on a budget that escalates every year with a shrinking workforce to provide it. As more will have retired more will be saved.

Reeves mentions the black hole in a similar way. She has mentioned the surplus that should be aimed for at the end of the 5year plan several times. She also will need to check things are on track in this respect and others in 3 years time.

 

[motorbiking]

But your link is headed, "An assessment of the tax rises and spending changes proposed in the 2024 Labour Party general election manifesto".

Nonsense.

No 2 and a No 9 - you are off to a good start.

the manifesto said: “Labour will not increase taxes on working people, which is why we will not increase National Insurance, the basic, higher, or additional rates of Income Tax, or VAT.”

Employers NI is a tax on employing working people. It was raised.

busted:

Did the Budget break Labour’s National Insurance commitment? - Full Fact

The government’s announcement that it is raising employer NI contributions has led to debate about exactly what Labour promised in its manifesto.

fullfact.org

 

[carmanmemoranda]

No 2 and a No 9 - you are off to a good start.

the manifesto said: “Labour will not increase taxes on working people, which is why we will not increase National Insurance, the basic, higher, or additional rates of Income Tax, or VAT.”

Employers NI is a tax on employing working people. It was raised.

busted:

Did the Budget break Labour’s National Insurance commitment? - Full Fact

The government’s announcement that it is raising employer NI contributions has led to debate about exactly what Labour promised in its manifesto.

fullfact.org

Didn't break their claim at pay packet level

What's your defence of the black hole though ?

 

[motorbiking]

Defence? I don't think many people believe that the 22bn was unknown. maybe just you?

Budget 2024: Is Labour right to claim there’s a £22 billion ‘black hole’ in the public finances? - Full Fact

It’s been a key government claim since the election - but what does it actually mean? Ahead of the 2024 Autumn Budget, we took a closer look.

fullfact.org

 

[denso13]

busted:

You could maybe complain to someone, not sure who. Unfortunately, you are stuffed for a few years yet.

 

[motorbiking]

Didn't break their claim at pay packet level

Let me explain what will happen...

Dear Low paid worker, due to increases in employers NI contributions and the ongoing pressure on business margins the following changes will be applied to pay and benefits: [pick any number]
- the annual pay increase will take account of the increased costs and be reduced by 1%.
- discretionary over time pay will be capped/reduced
- employers contribution to pensions will be reduced 1%
- You will no longer get discretionary birthday off.
- private medical excess will be increased.

Dear high paid worker, due to increase in employers NI contributions and the ongoing pressure on business margins the following changes will be applied to annual bonuses:
- your 50% bonus is reduced to 25%, You will received an invitation to join the management share participation purchase scheme (MPPS) to the value of your 25% bonus. You will be loaned the money to purchase the shares via the MPPS, you will be entitled to sell the shares back to "invest co". at the end of FY25 at the published rate [2X]. You should make sure you declare this as a CGT on your self assessment. This will enable us to reduce both Employee NI and Employer NI. You will also avoid 21% tax on your bonus return [2X]. For those who's OTE, is below £120k, you may get some of your personal allowance back too. Result!.